Oct. 31st, 2004

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Over on Talking Points Memo, a reader offers this report from Florida:
At today’s early vote in the College Hill district of East Tampa -- a heavily democratic, 90% African American community — we had 879 voters wait an average of five hours to cast their vote. People were there until four hours after they closed (as long as they’re in line by 5, they can vote).

Here’s what was so moving:

We hardly lost anyone. People stood outside for an hour, in the blazing sun, then inside for another four hours as the line snaked around the library, slowly inching forward. It made Disneyland look like speed-walking. Some waited 6 hours. To cast one vote. And EVERYBODY felt that it was crucial, that their vote was important, and that they were important.
There's more. It feels good.



... although a little part of me is imagining what the lines are going to be like on Tuesday.
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Melodramatic intro: Pre-election jitters. )

Election news! Reports from every battleground state. Bush fans, slightly nervous. Kerry, good closer. (I love the photo on this one, although neither the black-and-white print edition nor the thumbnailed online version is quite satisfying.)

Dear Osama: Nobody cares. (Despite two or three articles devoted to campaign spin.)

Todd Purdum says citizens are most passionately involved than they've been in years. For example, all those volunteers traveling to swing states to be poll watchers. And the relationships that fall apart because of political divides. And then there's the man who allegedly threatened to kill Dick Cheney, and was preparing to do it. This is, of course, hideous.

Matt Bai overblows a crisis of faith in the institutions of democracy. Edmund Andrews offers a letter to the next president (one for each option), about those budget promises they made. A.O. Scott takes refuge in not-quite-off-camera video of the candidates. And Tom Friedman endorses Bush's father. I didn't finish that one.

Non-presidential politics: Congressional races. Photographs of town council meetings. And Peter Jennings, in a tour bus, out to defeat Brian Williams once Brokaw leaves office.
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Slate's Election Scorecard, today:
Several of the states we've been watching closely—let's call them Tier 1--are pretty consistently going to one candidate or the other: Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa to Bush; Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and now Wisconsin to Kerry. Of these, only Wisconsin and Iowa show signs of vulnerability. Florida, Ohio, and Minnesota have not settled into such a pattern. In those three states—let's call them Tier 2--polls are far from agreement. Our tentative theory is that these are the states in which poll results are most influenced by variations among likely-voter screens. To put it another way, these are the states in which turnout will most certainly decide who wins. If the Tier 1 states are distributed as current data suggest, then the election reduces to a simple equation. Whichever candidate takes two of the Tier 2 states is the next president.
Later in the day:
You can make a good case that Minnesota is falling into Tier 1 on Kerry's side. That would leave Bush with the job of winning both Florida and Ohio--or packing his bags for Crawford.
Of course, polls are always wrong, subjective analysis is wronger still, and thinking the game is over is a sure way to lose it. But for entertainment value you can't beat this kind of scope-tightening.
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Brazil's nuclear program: They're not letting weapons inspectors in. "No one" thinks they're trying to build a bomb, but some people think they'll export uranium to the wrong hands.

Phasing out unleaded gas in Africa. Edit: Phasing in, of course.

From the Islamic world: Al Qaqaa today, empty "like the end of the world" and in the hands of mujahedeen. Senior officials speak, mostly anonymously, about the obstacles to victory (and elections) in Iraq. Spanish prisons are prime recruitment centers for Islamic militants.

And in Canada, anti-Semitic comments from two prominent Muslims. One of them says his reference to Jews as "the brothers of monkeys and swine" was taken out of context. See if you can come up with a context that makes that one okay. Apparently the police are investigating these comments as possible hate crimes, which, for all that they're appalling and offensive, is completely bizarre to me. God bless the USA.

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